In Georgia, the labor department released a depressing statistic on June 17—the jobless rate declined a mere one-tenth of 1 percent in May to 10.2 percent.
While the news implies the economy still has a way to go, the unemployment rate reported on religiously by the media is not the best indicator of the overall health of the economy. Actually, there is no single “best” indicator at all. Rather, only when these stats are viewed together can we get a more accurate picture.
Since the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator, unemployment can worsen even after the economy starts to improve. In fact, the unemployment rate is usually one of the last indicators to improve after a recession ends and one of the slowest to worsen at the beginning of one.
Overall jobless numbers are a pretty weak indicator when viewed in a vacuum. There are reports such as hiring surveys and a number of more accurate economic indicators you may not even be aware of.
Take the Pulse of Commerce Index, or PCI. This indicator is targeted—it measures diesel fuel sales at 7,000 truck stops nationwide. According to Bloomberg Businessweek, the PCI climbed 3.1 percent in April—the largest monthly increase in 10 years.
Why are diesel fuel sales so important? When industry is expanding, more products are shipped via truck. The goods being shipped by these trucks have a direct correlation with the expansion of the U.S. economy.
Then there’s electricity. Believe it or not, electrical output is a major indicator of growth in the services economy and commercial real estate sector.
The commercial part of a report that Edison Electric Institute publishes weekly increased 10.8 percent during the week of June 5 compared to the same week in 2009, Bloomberg Businessweek reports. Bottom line, when more offices are being used—which require electricity—more people are working.
Technology is faring well, too. According to the latest Tech Pulse Index, which measures tech employment, software purchases and other trends, the 12-month growth rate is the highest it’s been in 10 years—25.2 percent.
As for employment, the Bloomberg Businessweek article says 18 percent of employers polled in a recent Manpower survey plan to increase staffing levels in Q3. And 67 percent of staffing firms plan to hire more recruiters, according to a recent report by Staffing Industry Analysts.
There are even seriously quirky indicators ranging from alligator farms to dry cleaning sales that can give us an accurate outlook, according to this story in Kiplinger.
The unemployment rate is an important indicator. However, it is best viewed with a wide-angle lens, not a microscope.
-Mark Weinstein
CEO 
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Accounting & Finance 
Medical Sales 
Trucks, Technology and Other Economic Indicators You May Not Have Considered
In Georgia, the labor department released a depressing statistic on June 17—the jobless rate declined a mere one-tenth of 1 percent in May to 10.2 percent.
While the news implies the economy still has a way to go, the unemployment rate reported on religiously by the media is not the best indicator of the overall health of the economy. Actually, there is no single “best” indicator at all. Rather, only when these stats are viewed together can we get a more accurate picture.
Since the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator, unemployment can worsen even after the economy starts to improve. In fact, the unemployment rate is usually one of the last indicators to improve after a recession ends and one of the slowest to worsen at the beginning of one.
Overall jobless numbers are a pretty weak indicator when viewed in a vacuum. There are reports such as hiring surveys and a number of more accurate economic indicators you may not even be aware of.
Take the Pulse of Commerce Index, or PCI. This indicator is targeted—it measures diesel fuel sales at 7,000 truck stops nationwide. According to Bloomberg Businessweek, the PCI climbed 3.1 percent in April—the largest monthly increase in 10 years.
Why are diesel fuel sales so important? When industry is expanding, more products are shipped via truck. The goods being shipped by these trucks have a direct correlation with the expansion of the U.S. economy.
Then there’s electricity. Believe it or not, electrical output is a major indicator of growth in the services economy and commercial real estate sector.
The commercial part of a report that Edison Electric Institute publishes weekly increased 10.8 percent during the week of June 5 compared to the same week in 2009, Bloomberg Businessweek reports. Bottom line, when more offices are being used—which require electricity—more people are working.
Technology is faring well, too. According to the latest Tech Pulse Index, which measures tech employment, software purchases and other trends, the 12-month growth rate is the highest it’s been in 10 years—25.2 percent.
As for employment, the Bloomberg Businessweek article says 18 percent of employers polled in a recent Manpower survey plan to increase staffing levels in Q3. And 67 percent of staffing firms plan to hire more recruiters, according to a recent report by Staffing Industry Analysts.
There are even seriously quirky indicators ranging from alligator farms to dry cleaning sales that can give us an accurate outlook, according to this story in Kiplinger.
The unemployment rate is an important indicator. However, it is best viewed with a wide-angle lens, not a microscope.
-Mark Weinstein